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Writer's pictureFrancois S. Marmion

Deforestation and reforestation 2040: what's in for the future?

Updated: Nov 15





Did you know that a man, Antoine Moses, a professional forester from Canada, was able to plant, on his own, a record of 23,000 trees in a day?





Oceans and forests are the two natural ways to capture CO2:


  • Forests capture approximately 7.6 billion metric tons of CO₂ annually, accounting for about 30% of annual global CO₂ emissions from human activities. This carbon is stored in tree biomass, roots, dead organic matter, and soils. Tropical forests are particularly effective at carbon capture due to their dense biomass. However, all forests, even temperate or boreal contribute to CO2 capture

  • Oceans absorb around 10 billion metric tons of CO₂ per year, equivalent to about 25% of global CO₂ emissions annually. The CO₂ captured by oceans is primarily absorbed in the upper layers of water and then stored at various depths, partly by phytoplankton and through the "biological pump," which moves carbon to the deep ocean. Oceanic carbon storage is extensive but can contribute to acidification, which harms marine life.


Following the global popularity of Peter Wohlleben's book The Hidden Life of Trees, which I highly suggest reading, numerous individuals have come to realize that trees are not merely independent plants but also engage in communication, mutual support, and information sharing. Like certain wildlife species such as dolphins or whales, we as humans tend to hold a favorable sentiment towards trees, perceiving them as beneficial to us.




Let's have a more detailed look at what efforts are currently made with reforestation and what is the net effect on the world's forests:


(Source: Hannah Ritchie (2021) - “Deforestation and Forest Loss”)


The good news is that deforestation is slowing down: as we can see on this chart, the peak was reached in the 1980s and the situation has been slowly improving since. The bad news is that it is still happening massively, especially in tropical countries, with three major areas affected: South America (Brazil, Bolivia, Peru) and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar), plus some parts of Africa such as Congo (DRC).


The FAO estimates that approximately 10 million hectares are deforested every year (about the size of Portugal) and 4 to 5 million hectares reforested. That leaves us with a net loss of around 50 million hectares. However, a biomass-rich tropical forest might not be replaced, in terms of CO2 absorption, by a "brand-new" forest in temperate regions.


Deforestation can fluctuate due to political reasons (change of governments more or less in favor of preserving the forest) and the occurrence of forest fires in a given year. This graph shows the countries more affected by the loss of primary forests (forests that had never been affected by humans before) in 2023:





(Source - Forest Pulse: the latest on world's forests by Mikaela Weisse, Elizabeth Goldman, Sarah Carter, April 2024, Wolrd Resource Institute, Global Forest Review)

For instance this year, Brazil and Columbia showed lower losses while Bolivia, Nicaragua and Laos showed an increase in deforestation. Laos is a particularly dramatic example with the worst loss ever, due to the cumulation of a difficult economic situation and an apetite of the Chinese neighbours for agricultural land and production in Laos.



Losing forests can have different causes, which vary in various countries:

  • logging, timber business

  • converting forest land to other uses such as expanding agriculture, mining, building infrastructure

  • forest fires

  • local subsistence and charcoal

  • urbanization


In that respect the following graph is very interesting, showing that in temperate forests the major issue has become forest fires while in Latin America and South East Asia, land conversion to agriculture and mining is still the main issue. Africa has a different profile where it is mainly shifting cultivation (subsistence agriculture) and use of charcoal by people with no or costly access to electricity which is the root cause of deforestation.


There is an interesting transition model, which shows that countries are evolving from no deforestation to high deforestation through history, then they slow down deforestation and start reforesting their territory. European countries such as France and the UK have gone through these phases over centuries and are now in stage 4 with increasing forest lands. For instance, the percentage of forests had gone down to less then than 15% by the mid-nineteenth century and it is now back to more than 30% of the territory. China is in the process of getting into that phase too, while countries such as Laos or Bolivia are still at stage 2, with an increasing deforestation rate.



.(Source: Hannah Ritchie & Hosonuma, Environmental research letter)

A country like Ethiopia has gone down from 30% of its territory covered with forests in the 19th century to only 4% now. The country has launched a massive campaign to plant billions of new trees every year: the goal was 6.5 billion trees in 2023, with more than 20 million citizens participating throughout the country. This yearly campaign has helped with slowing down the rate of deforestation, which is still quite high though: more than 90,000 hectares of forest are destroyed every year, while, the nation plants approximately 20,000 hectares each year. As a result, 70,000 hectares of forest cover are lost.


(Credit: Forest Nation)


To end this article with a glimpse of hope, here are the top 10 reforestation projects in the world:


1. The Bonn Challenge
  • Launched by: Germany and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in 2011.

  • Goal: Restore 350 million hectares (865 million acres) of degraded land by 2030.

  • Regions: Global, with many participant countries from Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

  • Description: This is one of the most ambitious reforestation and forest landscape restoration initiatives, aiming to restore forest landscapes worldwide. Numerous countries have made pledges under the Bonn Challenge, including Brazil, India, and Rwanda, each committed to restoring millions of hectares of land.

2. Africa's Great Green Wall
  • Launched by: African Union in 2007.

  • Goal: Create an 8,000-kilometer (5,000-mile) "green wall" across the width of Africa to combat desertification, restore 100 million hectares, and sequester 250 million tons of carbon by 2030.

  • Regions: Sahel region, across 11 countries from Senegal to Djibouti.

  • Description: This ambitious project aims to combat desertification in the Sahel by planting a mosaic of trees, shrubs, and grasses to restore land degraded by climate change and deforestation. The Great Green Wall also aims to address food security, reduce poverty, and create green jobs across the region.


3. China’s Grain-for-Green Program (GFGP)
  • Launched by: Chinese government in 1999.

  • Goal: Restore approximately 32 million hectares by encouraging farmers to convert croplands back into forested areas.

  • Regions: Primarily in northern and western China.

  • Description: Also known as the Sloping Land Conversion Program, GFGP is the largest reforestation initiative in the world by area. It offers incentives for farmers to restore degraded lands, especially on steep slopes, by planting trees instead of farming crops. The program aims to reduce soil erosion, improve biodiversity, and reduce flooding.

4. The Trillion Trees Initiative
  • Launched by: World Economic Forum and partners like the United Nations and WWF in 2020.

  • Goal: Plant one trillion trees globally by 2030.

  • Regions: Global, with projects and partnerships spanning multiple countries.

  • Description: This initiative is based on the idea that planting one trillion trees worldwide could capture enough carbon to mitigate climate change impacts. It supports countries, organizations, and individuals in reforestation efforts worldwide and collaborates with governments and NGOs to protect existing forests and restore degraded land.

5. 30x30 Initiative (Global Ocean and Land Conservation Goal)
  • Launched by: Part of the UN’s biodiversity goals, supported by the High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People.

  • Goal: Conserve 30% of the planet’s land and ocean by 2030.

  • Regions: Global, with commitments from over 100 countries.

  • Description: Although it encompasses both conservation and reforestation, 30x30 aims to restore millions of hectares of forests as part of its broader conservation goals. Forest restoration is a critical component of the initiative, focusing on preserving biodiversity and enhancing ecosystem resilience.

6. Amazonia 1 Trillion Trees Campaign (1t.org Amazonia)
  • Launched by: Partnership with 1t.org, the World Economic Forum, and local organizations.

  • Goal: Plant and protect one trillion trees in the Amazon Basin.

  • Regions: Amazon Rainforest, spanning Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and other South American countries.

  • Description: This ambitious program works with governments, indigenous groups, and local organizations to reforest the Amazon, which faces severe deforestation threats. The campaign focuses on restoring and protecting the Amazon's ecosystem to preserve biodiversity and address climate change.

7. India's Green India Mission
  • Launched by: Indian government in 2014.

  • Goal: Restore 5 million hectares of forest and enhance forest-based livelihoods for local communities.

  • Regions: Across India, with a focus on degraded forest areas.

  • Description: As part of India's commitment to the Paris Agreement, the Green India Mission is focused on reforestation, biodiversity conservation, and improving ecosystem services. The program also includes community involvement to promote sustainable forest management and ensure the benefits of reforestation reach local populations.

8. Brazil’s Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact
  • Launched by: A coalition of NGOs, government, and private sector partners in 2009.

  • Goal: Restore 15 million hectares of the Atlantic Forest by 2050.

  • Regions: Atlantic Forest region along Brazil’s eastern coast.

  • Description: The Atlantic Forest is one of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet, but it has been heavily deforested. This pact seeks to restore and protect remaining areas through reforestation, aiming to reconnect fragmented forests, promote biodiversity, and mitigate climate impacts.

9. The New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF)
  • Launched by: United Nations Climate Summit in 2014, endorsed by over 200 countries and organizations.

  • Goal: Restore 350 million hectares of forest by 2030.

  • Regions: Global, with a focus on tropical forests.

  • Description: The NYDF sets international goals to stop deforestation and restore forests, focusing on policy changes and financial incentives to encourage forest protection and reforestation. Signatories include governments, businesses, and civil society groups, committed to sustainable forest management.

10. The United States Reforestation and Tree Planting Initiatives
  • Launched by: U.S. government, private organizations, and initiatives like the REPLANT Act.

  • Goal: Restore millions of acres of forest through public and private efforts.

  • Regions: Primarily U.S. national forests, focusing on areas affected by wildfires and pest outbreaks.

  • Description: In recent years, the U.S. has increased its commitment to reforestation, particularly in response to severe wildfire damage. The REPLANT Act supports the U.S. Forest Service in replanting forests across the country, while private organizations such as the Arbor Day Foundation are involved in large-scale tree-planting efforts.


There is hope that by 2050 deforestation has massively slowed down and that, by that time, most countries in the world will be in Stage 3 or 4 of the Forest transition model.


Here is how these reforestation projects could help in the countries most impacted by reforestation:

Country

Annual Primary Forest Loss (2023)

Total Forest Area Lost (2001-2020)

Primary Drivers of Deforestation

Reforestation Efforts and Figures

Brazil

1.7 million hectares

55 million hectares

Cattle ranching, soy cultivation, logging

Amazonia 1 Trillion Trees Campaign aims to restore the Amazon basin; Brazil has pledged 12 million hectares under the Bonn Challenge by 2030

Democratic Republic of Congo

0.5 million hectares

15 million hectares

Subsistence agriculture, logging

Bonn Challenge commitment of 8 million hectares by 2030

Indonesia

0.3 million hectares

9.6 million hectares

Palm oil plantations, logging

Restorasi Indonesia (Ecosystem Restoration Program) aims to restore 2 million hectares by 2030

Bolivia

0.2 million hectares

6.5 million hectares

Agriculture, cattle ranching, logging

National reforestation projects with a goal to restore 4.5 million hectares by 2030

Peru

0.1 million hectares

2.5 million hectares

Agriculture, mining, logging

Part of the 1 Trillion Trees Campaign, with efforts to reforest the Amazon and 3.2 million hectares pledged by 2030

Malaysia

0.1 million hectares

4.7 million hectares

Palm oil plantations, logging

Green Malaysia reforestation initiatives; approximately 500,000 hectares targeted for restoration by 2030

Colombia

0.1 million hectares

1.7 million hectares

Agriculture, cattle ranching, mining

Bonn Challenge and Amazon reforestation, aiming to restore 1 million hectares

Mexico

0.1 million hectares

2.8 million hectares

Agriculture, urban expansion, logging

Sowing Life program (Sembrando Vida) targets 1 million hectares restored

Myanmar

0.1 million hectares

2.7 million hectares

Agriculture, logging, infrastructure development

Forest landscape restoration project with a target of 500,000 hectares by 2030

Paraguay

0.1 million hectares

2.3 million hectares

Agriculture, cattle ranching

Reforestation initiatives focused on Atlantic Forest; targeting 1 million hectares by 2030


Sadly, I have to recognize that I never planted a tree in my life, how about you?


Maybe that's something that we should all do, like parents opening a bank account for their kids to start saving money, a tree account for each newborn might be a cool idea.


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